Decisions from data: challenged assumptions
A genealogy education company had years of data sitting mostly unused. This is the analysis layer that turned it into decisions: which customers were worth keeping, which webinars actually sold, and when buyers convert, run over 45,000 orders re-sequenced into buyer journeys.
From transaction log to buyer journeys
The genealogy education company's CRM held 45,050 orders, 5,192 deals, and 55,127 contacts, but only as disconnected records. The build interleaved every order and webinar signup into a chronological journey per person, classified every product into price tiers and categories, and enforced strict attribution: a webinar only gets credit for purchases that happen after the signup.
Strict attribution dropped every attendee who already had a paid purchase before signup. Crediting the webinar for those would have inflated its conversion rate against sales it never caused.
The $100 door is the good door
For this business, buyers who enter at $100+ repeat at 50.8% and carry $348 of lifetime value, against $51 for the cheapest-entry cohort, a gap of roughly $296 per customer. The upgrade path barely exists: only 13.5% of low-tier entrants ever reach a $100+ purchase. This runs counter to the usual playbook of hooking buyers cheap and upgrading them later. It is specific to this company's situation and atypical of what most marketers would expect, which is exactly why it was worth surfacing.
Lifetime value by entry price tier
Average LTV of buyers grouped by the price of their first purchase. The first four tiers sit near $51 to $104; premium entry (yellow) jumps to $348.
Repeat rate by entry price tier
Share of each cohort that ever buys again. The mid-tiers sag, and premium entrants (yellow) come back at roughly half again the rate of any other tier.
Where the revenue actually is
Share of orders vs share of revenue by order size. $100+ orders are 17.6% of transactions and 67.6% of revenue. The business is premium whether it markets that way or not.
Specific beats broad, six to one
Webinars were the company's main funnel, run on instinct. Attribution across 13,746 signups and 13 webinars made the pattern unmissable: topic-specific sessions convert up to 36.8% of signups into buyers, broad seasonal ones as little as 5.6%, and the paid-traffic capture form a rounding-error 0.3%.
Signup → purchase conversion by webinar type
Topic-specific webinars (red) convert 4 to 6 times the broad seasonal ones (gray). The paid-capture form converted almost none of its signups, since those were names without intent.
When webinar signups become buyers
Share of conversions by time since signup. Only 11.6% buy same-day; the modal buyer converts one to three months out (yellow). Nurture length was calibrated to this curve.
Showing up twice is the intent signal
Post-signup purchase rate by how many webinars a person attended. Coming back a second time (yellow) converts at 39.3%, nearly four times the 10.8% of one-time attendees.
Attendance frequency turned out to be a better predictor than any attribute the company was segmenting on. Across all 6,912 attendees the blended rate is 23.7%, which is the number the business had been planning against. Splitting that blend by attendance count is what made it actionable: the second registration, not the first, is the moment a lead becomes worth chasing.