valrune/data
all work
porter's five forces, applied

Five forces, measured from a warehouse

Michael Porter's five forces is the standard lens for reading an industry's structure. It is usually applied in a conference room with sticky notes. This version was scored from a consolidated warehouse instead: 28 million rows of market data behind one Amazon-native skincare brand's category.

framework:porter's five forces (hbr)
stack:bigquery · semrush · market data
focus:competitive strategy
16[ competitor profiles compiled ]
1,814[ keyword-gap terms analyzed ]
1,231[ referring domains matrixed ]
94[ tables modeled, source to production ]

The framework, briefly

Porter's argument is that profitability is set by the structure of the industry you compete in, more than by how good any single company is. Five pressures define that structure: how hard rivals fight, how easily new competitors arrive, whether substitutes can do the same job, and how much pricing power buyers and suppliers hold. A company that knows which forces bind it can position where the pressure is weakest.

The strongest competitive force or forces determine the profitability of an industry and become the most important to strategy formulation

· michael e. porter, harvard business review, 2008

The five forces

Four outside pressures converging on the rivalry at the center. Each force strengthens or weakens the industry's ability to hold onto profit.

COMPETITIVERIVALRYTHREAT OF NEW ENTRANTSBUYER POWERTHREAT OF SUBSTITUTESSUPPLIER POWERframework: porter's five competitive forces that shape strategy
[ each force, and what measures it ]

competitive rivalry

How hard incumbents fight each other on price, features, marketing, and shelf space. High rivalry transfers industry profit to customers and ad platforms.

signals → share-of-voice on your own search terms · cpc inflation · competitor presence overlap · price-move tracking

threat of new entrants

How easily a newcomer can set up shop and undercut incumbents. Low barriers cap everyone's margins whether or not those entrants survive.

signals → new-competitor velocity in category data · reviews-to-page-one benchmarks · ad-cost trend as an entry tax

threat of substitutes

Products from outside the category that do the same job. It is the force most often missed, because it is invisible in category-level reporting.

signals → cross-category search demand growth · keyword migration · basket analysis across product forms

buyer power

Customers' ability to force prices down. It is strongest when switching is free and alternatives are one search away.

signals → price elasticity from order data · aov distribution · repeat-rate vs discount exposure · review sentiment on price

supplier power

Suppliers' ability to charge more for inputs. Concentrated suppliers of differentiated inputs squeeze margins; commodity inputs do not.

signals → input cost tracking · supplier concentration · lead-time and moq exposure

[ applied: a skincare category, scored ]

What the category data said

For an Amazon-native skincare brand, each force was scored from a consolidated market layer built alongside the brand's own sales data. The inputs included keyword-gap terms, referring domains, competitor site performance, competitor Amazon performance, supplier comparisons, buyer profiles, pricing positioning, unique selling propositions, business sizes, market size, saturation and growth rates, alternative markets, and ad-auction insights, among others. Rivalry and new entrants scored high: 127+ competing products, ad costs inflating 37% year over year, and a social-first challenger with 800M+ organic video views. Substitutes scored highest of all, with chemical exfoliation growing at roughly twice the physical category's rate. Supplier power scored lowest, because commodity textiles constrain no one.

Measured force intensity

The category read at a glance, scored 1 to 5 from the market layer.

metric: force intensity 1–5, scored from category data

Pressure concentrates at the top of the pentagon: substitutes, rivalry, and new entrants. Supplier power sits at the bottom. Sorted by intensity, substitutes lead, and that is the force most category reporting never captures, because it lives outside the category definition. A defensible strategy has to answer the top of the pentagon, so the recommendations that followed all aimed at the top, where the pressure was highest.

Rivalry evidence: the organic authority gap

Monthly organic traffic indexed to this brand = 100, log scale. The brand converts well on Amazon but owns almost no search real estate off it. Rivals hold 9x to 120x the authority footprint, which moved 'content moat' to the top of the strategy stack.

metric: organic traffic index, this brand = 100 (log) · source: semrush competitive matrix
16[ competitor profiles compiled ]
1,814[ keyword-gap terms analyzed ]
1,231[ referring domains matrixed ]
94[ tables modeled, source to production ]